Recently updated data of the World Trade Organization (WTO) show that Brazil's performance in international trade during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic was weaker than other countries', especially with regard to exports of manufacturing goods. 

The falls in the value of exports and imports of Brazilian goods in 2020 were, respectively, of 7% and 10%, while worldwide the losses reached 8%. The changes in value of Brazilian manufacturing exports and imports were, respectively, -21.6% and -10.6%, while the world average was around -5%.

Therefore, Brazil fell from 34th to 35th in the ranking of world exports of manufactures between 2019 and 2020, from a share of 0.52% to 0.43% of the total in nominal dollars. In the ranking of global manufacturing imports, Brazil went from the 25th to the 27th position from 2019 to 2020, with a participation of 1.01%, about 2.5 times greater than that of exports.

In turn, Brazil's share of world exports of goods (in value) was stable at 1.19% in 2020 and even led to an improvement in the country's place in the ranking, from 27th to 26th, totaling US$ 210 billion in 2020. Brazil's imports of goods amounted to US$ 166 billion in 2020, which meant a share of 0.93% of the world total. This represented a slight increase compared to the previous year (0.91%), but the country still fell from the 28th to the 29th place in the world ranking.

In the last decade, total Brazilian exports of goods and our manufacturing foreign sales moved in the same direction as global trends; but, in general, we suffered more striking fluctuations than those observed worldwide. The "reprimarization" of the export basket continued in 2020, with the share of agricultural goods (including food) in total exports reaching 44%, fuel and minerals 28%, and manufacturing 25%. In terms of our imports of goods, manufacturing accounted for almost 80% of the total.

According to the WTO yearbook, the 2020 decline in world trade in goods was less severe than many forecasts had pointed out because of fiscal and monetary policies that boosted income and consumption, trade measures to keep supply chains running, technological innovation that facilitated business operations, among other reasons. 

The trade recovery in 2021 was very heterogeneous across regions: faster in Asia, with a return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and North America, but lagging behind in poorer and less industrialized regions, such as Africa and the Middle East. 

In the 2020 ranking of the largest exporters of manufacturing goods, China established itself as the leader, mainly because it was one of the few countries whose sales (in dollar values) grew compared to 2019 (+4%). Thus, its share of total manufacturing exports increased from 18.2% in 2019 to 20% in 2020. Germany (2nd place) emerged ahead of the USA (3rd place) in this ranking, with Japan and Hong Kong in 4th and 5th places, respectively. 

In the 2020 ranking of the world's largest importers of manufacturing goods, the USA maintained its leadership, even with a drop of 5% in relation to 2019. Then came China, Germany, Hong Kong and France—just like in 2019. 

In addition to manufacturing, it should be noted that the impact of the pandemic on trade in different types of goods and services was quite heterogeneous. Worldwide, in 2020, exports of fuel and mineral ores had the biggest fall in value (-23.9%), due to a significant drop in energy prices. Exports of agricultural products increased 0.9%. But, in terms of volume, exports of agricultural goods registered a rate of -2.3%, fuel and minerals -3.1%, and manufacturing -6.1%.

Among manufactures, world exports (in value) of automotive products (-16.4%) were the most affected by the pandemic, while textile goods grew significantly (+16%). In particular, trade in medical products increased by +16.3% in 2020 (+4.7% in 2019), leading the share of medical products in the world trade in goods to grow from 5.3% in 2019 to 6.6% in 2020.

Despite the considerable drop in commodity prices in the first half of 2020, they have risen rapidly since then, generating inflationary pressures worldwide. In May 2021, metal and food prices had already surpassed the 2014 level, agricultural raw materials were almost at the same mark, but fuels were still 30% cheaper than in 2014.

The full text is available in Portuguese.