According to the latest data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), Brazilian exports of goods and of manufacturing goods grew more than the world average, allowing some recovery in the rankings of major exporters, but not enough to reverse the longer-term trajectory. 

In the world, total exports of goods, which in addition to industrial also include primary goods, grew 26.5% in value in 2021, after falling 7.2% in 2020, while Brazil's sales registered a 34.2% rise after a 5.4% decrease. With this, we moved one place up in the world ranking of the largest exporters of goods, going from 26th to 25th.

Our share of the global value of goods exported improved from 1.19% in 2020 to 1.26% in 2021. This is the largest share since 2013, when we obtained 1.28%. Behind this performance is the increase in commodity prices, which accelerated further in 2022, and the revival of international demand after the most serious moments of the COVID-19 pandemic.

When we analyze only the performance of manufacturing exports, Brazil also grew above the world aggregate in 2021: 34.8% versus 22.5%, respectively, implying an improvement in its position in the international ranking.

We gained one place and ranked 34th, with 0.47% of global manufacturing exports. Although favorable, this movement has little changed the situation seen in recent years. It is worth remembering that between 2005 and 2011 we occupied, most of the time, the 28th position among the largest exporters of manufacturing goods in the world, with an average share of 0.77%. We went through a clear decline in the ranking.

Compared to our participation in global industry, this presence in international manufacturing trade indicates an evident need for greater integration of the country into the global economy. As discussed in Letter IEDI n. 1180 “New decline of Brazil in the Global Industry,” despite consecutive falls, Brazil still has the 15th largest manufacturing industry in the world, representing 1.28% of the total value added. That is, we have industrial skills superior to our international presence.

Much of this loss is concentrated in products and industrial branches of greater technological intensity. The WTO data show that the share of the machinery and equipment industry, including transport, fell from 47.3% to 37.3% of Brazil's manufacturing exports between 2010 and 2021. In relation to our total exports of goods, the decrease was from 16.5% to 9.3%, respectively.

The Ministry of Commerce's trade balance data, periodically analyzed by the IEDI according to the OECD classification by technological intensity, show the same trend. As discussed in Letter IEDI n. 1186 “Marginalization of high-tech exports,” the share of high-tech branches in the total exports of Brazilian manufacturing fell from 14% in 2000 to 6.8% in 2010 and then to 3.9% in 2021. In 2022, the trend continued and reached 3.5%.

Another piece of evidence recently analyzed by the IEDI concerns the complexity of our export basket to the main foreign markets served by Brazilian industry (LAIA, Mercosur and NAFTA). The most recent edition of the study, whose results are in Letter IEDI n. 1188, shows that, between 2018 and 2020, we lost space to Chinese products in these markets and our basket became less complex. In this context, we continue to retreat in the international ranking of economic complexity, against not only China, but also other emerging countries.

That said, it is important to emphasize that having a relevant weight in world manufacturing trade is not easy, since many of the trade flows are organized by large global companies based in a few countries. Only 6 nations account for over 50% of all global manufacturing exports. Our well-known competitiveness problems and Brazil's absence from major trade deals in recent decades have further isolated us.

Thus, the leadership of the WTO ranking is quite stable and in 2021 there was no change. China appears in 1st place, with a fraction of 21.2% of the total world value of manufacturing exports. Then there are Germany (9.4%), the USA (7.3%), Japan (4.4%) and Hong Kong (4.1%).

On the other hand, on the side of manufacturing imports, Brazil's weight is a little less marginal. In 2021, we accounted for 1.13% of the global total, a share about 2.5 times greater than that of exports. The Brazilian position in this ranking is also higher: we occupy the 25th position, rising not one place only as in exports, but two in relation to 2020.

As for the top ranking of imports, the leading countries in exports repeat themselves in most cases, suggesting their integration into global value chains that, not infrequently, are coordinated by their companies. It is worth highlighting the US leadership in the ranking of manufacturing imports, with 14.3% of the total, illustrating the asymmetries of Sino-US trade relations. 

Then there is China, in 2nd place, with 9.9% of the world's imports of manufacturing goods, Germany in 3rd, with 6.6%, Hong Kong in 4th, with 4%. In 5th place is France, with a share of 3.4%, a country that appears in the export ranking of manufacturing goods in 9th place, with a participation of 3.0%.

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