In Jun'24, the country's economic activity registered a significant boost, due to growth in all major sectors. The industry grew the most, registering its best result in the seasonally adjusted series since Jul'20, more than offsetting the decline of the previous two months.

The increase in the industry reached 4.1% from May'24 to June'24, reflecting the reaction of production in Rio Grande do Sul (+34.9%, seasonally adjusted), after the paralysis caused by the floods, but also due to petroleum products and biofuels (+4.0%), following technical shutdowns announced by Petrobras.

Despite these factors, it should be emphasized that positive signs were widespread in the industrial system, reaching all macro-sectors, 64% of its branches and 53% of the regional parks.

The service sector, in turn, registered its best result of the year, after fluctuations around stability. In the seasonally adjusted series, the increase was of 1.7% compared to May'24, with real revenue rising in all segments identified by the IBGE.

The segments that had fallen in May'24 managed to recover losses and the only case to record a slowdown, services provided to households, had done well in the previous month: +3.1% in May'24 and +0.3% in June'24, with seasonal adjustment.

With the support of industry and services, the Central Bank's IBC-Br indicator, which acts as a proxy for GDP, also showed its best result of 2024 in June: +1.4% in relation to the previous month, after adjusting for seasonal effects.

Retail trade was the one sector to lose momentum. Its sales fell 1.0%, and, considering the branches of vehicles, auto parts, construction material and wholesale-retail— that is, taking the broad concept of the sector —the rate was almost flat: +0.4%. 

The weak result at the end of the first half-year was due to only two of its branches: supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco (-2.1%, with adjustment) and articles for personal and domestic use (-1.8%). Sales of vehicles and auto parts (+3.9%) and construction material (+4.8%) prevented broad retail from being in the red.

Despite the more modest evolution in the month, retail trade remained in the black compared to last year, surpassing the results of the other two sectors in Q2'24. In its narrow concept, it registered 4.6% and in broad retail grew 4.0% against Q2'23, with some deceleration vis-à-vis Q1'24.

Industrial output grew 3.3% in Q2'24, driven by capital goods (+11.7%) and durable consumer goods (+7.7%), although semi- and non-durable consumer goods (+6.4%) also grew well, with the help of the meat and fuel sectors.

In the case of services, whose pace of growth has been decelerating as the bases of comparison become more robust, the figure was +2.0% compared to Q2'23. Two of its branches rose well above this level: information and communication (+6.0%) and other services (+6.1%), which bring together a diverse set of activities. The only branch in the red was transport, its auxiliaries and postal services (-1.5%).

With the support of Q2'24, all major sectors analyzed here advanced in the first half of the year, gaining speed in relation to the second half of last year. In addition, industry and retail also did better than in the 1st half of 2023.

The industry presented the sharpest reversal, progressing from -0.3% in the 1st half of 2023 to +2.6% in the 1st half of 2024. At the origin of this improvement is manufacturing, which went from -1.3% to +2.7% in the period.

Broad retail, which had already grown in the 1st half of 2023, went from +2.1% to +4.4% in Jan–Jun'24, while services decelerated from +4.7% to +1.6%, respectively, influencing the change from +3.7% to +2.1% in the Central Bank's IBC-Br indicator.

The full text is available in Portuguese.