The latest data from UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) point to a significant acceleration of the world industry in Q2'24, driven by high-income industrialized countries and branches of greater technological intensity. 

In Q2'24, global manufacturing output registered a variation of 1.0% in relation to the quarter before, after adjusting for seasonal effects, while in the previous 3-month period the industry had been stagnant (+0.1%). 

Compared to the same period last year, in turn, the pace of expansion was even better: 2.5%, after two consecutive quarters registering growth of 1.5%. 

In both comparisons, it was the best performance of global manufacturing since the end of 2023.

Unlike the first months of the year, the industrial sectors classified as medium-high and high technology grew ahead of the industry as a whole in Q2'24, registering 1.6% in relation to the previous quarter, while production of low-tech braches remained stable.

The group of high-income industrialized economies was the one that best captured this reaction, with the most significant quarterly change. Its manufacturing output went from a 1.3% decrease in Q1'24 to an expansion of 0.8% in Q2'24, always in relation to the previous quarter and seasonally adjusted. 

Compared to the previous year, there was only an easing of the contraction for this group of countries, from -1.7% in Q1'24 to -0.7% in Q2'24. There have already been six consecutive quarters of losses in the year-on-year comparison, although the latter was the mildest, pointing to a more promising phase, especially in the face of recent cuts in US and European base interest rates. 

The relative improvement was noticed mainly in the European industry, whose production went from a 1.0% decrease in Q1'24 to a positive variation of 0.2% in Q2'24 against the previous quarter. A change in sign was also observed in North America, from -0.3% to 0.5%, respectively. 

In relation to the situation a year ago, there was also progress, with a slowdown in the decline in industrial output from -2.2% in Q1'24 to -1.4% in Q2'24 in Europe and from -0.7% to -0.3% in North America. 

In China, the industry showed some resilience quarter after quarter, varying 1.8% and 1.7% in the last two quarters of 2023, 1.4% in Q1'24 and then 1.5% in Q2'24, always in relation to the immediately preceding period, with seasonal adjustment.

In contrast to a year earlier, there was an acceleration in Q2'24: 6.7% versus 5.2% in Q1'24. This was the best mark of the last four quarters, but fell short of the result recorded in Apr–Jun'23 (+7.8%).

The group of Latin American and Caribbean countries was the only one to register a drop in industrial production from Q1'24 to Q2'24: -0.3%, maintaining the flat path presented since the end of 2022. In relation to the same period of the previous year, the 1.0% decrease was the fifth consecutive negative rate.

Unlike Argentina and Mexico, which contributed negatively to the performance of the Latin American industry, Brazil stood out for its output growth. In addition, the expansion of our manufacturing closely followed the global aggregate result.

Taking the data with seasonal adjustment, as UNIDO does for other countries, Brazilian manufacturing increased 0.9% compared to Q1'24 against 1% of global industry, as seen previously. Compared to the same period last year, Brazil registered 2.9% versus 2.5% of the world total.

In the 1st half of 2024, in turn, manufacturing grew 2.3% in Brazil compared to 2.0% in the world. By doing better than the global average, we managed to climb some positions in the international industry ranking.

The IEDI periodically builds a ranking of the evolution of global industrial production based on UNIDO data. The sample includes 116 countries, covering almost the entire sector in the world.

In Q2'24, in comparison with the same period of 2023, we were in 40th place, rising three positions in relation to Q1'24 (43rd). The improvement is even more remarkable in contrast to Q2'23, when we were the 70th.

As a result, in Q2'24, Brazil ranked better than other prominent Latin American countries, such as Chile (-0.6%), which appeared in 71st, Mexico (-1%) in 75th, Colombia (-3%) in the 95th place and Argentina (-17.1%) in 115th.

In Jan–Jun'24 compared to the same half of 2023, our rate of 2.3% placed us in the 40th position, a significant improvement compared to Jan–Jun'23, when Brazilian industrial production shrank 1.4% and we were the 70th in the ranking.

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