The latest projections released by multilateral institutions for world GDP in 2024–2025 point to a scenario of relative stability of economic dynamism. For the IMF, after rising 3.3% in 2023, the global economy should grow 3.2% in 2024 and also in 2025. The only change from the previous scenario, of Jun'24, is a reduction of 0.1 percentage point in the 2025 projection. 

This same result is pointed out by the OECD, which projects 3.2% for 2024–2025, while UNCTAD forecasts a 2.7% variation. For the three institutions mentioned, the expected performance is the same for both 2024 and 2025, which may be denoting the weight of uncertainties arising from extreme climate effects and, above all, the conduct of global governance in the face of the possibility of Donald Trump wining the American presidential election, since these scenarios were drawn between September and October 2024, prior to the election. 

According to the IMF, growth in 2024–2025 will remain below the 3.8% average of the years 2000–2019, which will extend beyond the period of global disinflation, reaching 3.1% in 2029. A possible escalation of trade tensions in the world under the Trump administration could worsen this scenario.

For now, the expectation is that the volume of world trade will continue to gain strength, after the virtual stability of 2023 (+0.8%). It should remain in line with the expansion of global GDP in 2024, registering 3.1%, and should marginally exceed it in 2025, with a rate of 3.4%. In any case, it will be well below the annual 2000–2019 average (+4.9%). 

Regarding commodity prices, oil is expected to show a small increase in 2024 (+0.9%), although natural gas and coal prices should fall. In turn, food prices will register -5.2% and then -4.5% in 2025, due to record production estimated for the 2024–2025 biennium.

In relation to the pre-pandemic period, the Fund also highlights changes in the composition of global economic dynamism in favor of consumption of services in advanced economies (AE) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), due to a price path weaker than that of goods. Thus, a moderation in global manufacturing growth is expected.

Among the groups of countries, after the strong deceleration of 2023 (+1.7%), growth in AEs should maintain the same pace in 2024, registering 1.8% in 2024 and 2005, a level that should persist until 2029. 

However, this stability masks a significant difference among advanced countries. The US is expected to grow 2.8% in 2024 versus 2.9% in 2023, decelerating to 2.2% in 2025. Japan should follow the same path, but more intensely: from 1.7% in 2023 to 0.3% in 2024, and have a reversal of trend in 2025, to 1.1%.

In the opposite direction, for the euro area, the IMF forecasts an acceleration from 0.4% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024 and then to 1.2% in 2025. The expectation is also for a gain in force in the United Kingdom, whose GDP is expected to increase from 0.3% in 2023 to 1.1% in 2024 and then to 1.5% in 2025. 

Emerging and developing economies, in turn, should follow a path of loss of dynamism, especially from 2025, according to the IMF. The aggregate GDP growth of these countries is expected to go from 4.4% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, reaching 3.9% in 2029. 

Emerging and Developing Asia will continue to be the leading region in terms of dynamism, despite moderation from 5.7% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2024 and 5% in 2025, under the influence of China and India. The loss of pace of the Chinese economy worsened between the Fund's June'24 and October'24 outlooks, from 5.0% to 4.8% for 2024 compared to 5.2% growth in 2023. For 2025, Chinese GDP is expected to vary 4.5%. 

In Latin America and the Caribbean, in turn, the expected GDP result for 2024 is similar to that of last year: 2.1% against 2.2% in 2023, and much of this is due to Brazil, which will compensate for the slowdown in the Mexican economy (+1.5% against +3.2%, respectively). 

The upward revision of Brazilian GDP for 2024 was significant, going from 2.1% in the Jun'24 scenario to 3.0% in the Oct'24 scenario. As a result, the Fund estimates that we will maintain the same pace of 2023 (+2.9%). A not insignificant slowdown, however, is expected in 2025, when Brazil is expected to register 2.2%.

Among the hypotheses assumed in the last IMF outlook is the continuity of inflation reduction. Worldwide, consumer inflation is expected to go from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and reach 4.3% in 2025. This movement should be more intense in AEs (-2 p.p. between 2023 and 2024) stabilizing around 2% in 2025. In emerging markets, inflation is expected to decline from 8.1% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2025. 

There are also the following hypotheses about the conduct of macroeconomic policies:

 • Monetary policy: In the Euro area, the IMF projects a base interest rate of 2.5% per annum. In the United States, this rate is expected to reach its long-term equilibrium level of 2.9% in the third quarter of 2026. 

 •  The IMF assesses that AEs should adopt a more restrictive fiscal policy in 2024 and 2025, halving fiscal deficits by 2029. In EMDEs, fiscal policy is expected to remain relatively loose, but fiscal consolidation is expected in low-income economies that have lost access to the international financial market or have been forced to drastically reduce their deficits due to the rising cost of debt. 

The Fund draws attention to the fact that risks to the performance of the global economy have increased since April 2023 in a context of geopolitical tensions, military conflicts, reinforcement of protectionism, resulting in a negative bias for the balance of risks. 

On the negative side, the IMF points out 6 factors that may contribute to lower-than-expected growth in its baseline scenario: 

 • larger than anticipated effects of monetary tightening may result in a more intense slowdown and higher unemployment than anticipated; 

 •  repricing in financial markets and deteriorating global financial conditions due to a slower pace of monetary easing; 

 • stronger than expected contraction of the real estate sector in China; 

 •  new shocks in energy and non-energy commodity prices; 

 •  intensification of trade protectionism, exacerbating trade tensions and disrupting global value chains; 

 •  reappearance of social disturbances.

On the positive side, only 2 risk factors are pointed out: 

 • stronger recovery of public investment in AEs to achieve pressing policy objectives, such as the green transition and acceleration of technological progress; 

 •  acceleration of structural reforms in AEs and EMEDs to increase labor force participation, reduce misallocation of resources in labor and capital markets, and stimulate innovations.

Among its recommendations, the IMF again emphasizes that multilateral cooperation is necessary to limit the risks and costs of geopolitical fragmentation and climate change, accelerate the transition to green energy, and encourage debt restructuring.

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