The last quarter of the year began with a decline in industrial production, interrupting a sequence of two consecutive months of expansion. Despite this, in addition to being modest, the fall was restricted to a few branches, which relativizes the meaning of this negative sign.

Compared to a year ago, the diffusion of positive growth rates is even greater and, it is worth noting, there was a gain in strength in relation Q3'24, despite a favorable working-days effect.

After seasonal adjustment, the result was -0.2% from Sep'24 to Oct'24, driven only by the macro-sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, whose production registered -0.7%, mainly under the influence of biofuels and petroleum products (-2.0%), tobacco (-1.8%) and beverages (-1.1%).

Of the 25 branches monitored by the IBGE, 19 managed to increase production in Oct'24, that is, 76% of the total, with emphasis on clothing (+14.1% with adjustment), vehicles (+7.4%) and electrical machines and appliances (+5.4%), whose growth rates were among the highest in the month.

Regarding the four macro-sectors, three advanced in Oct'24 and those with markets more sensitive to credit and interest conditions continued to be in leading positions: 4.4% in durable consumer goods and 1.6% in capital goods, after adjusting for seasonal effects.

For these same macro-sectors, the results already known also point to a significant gain in vigor in the second half of the year compared to the situation a year ago: 2.6% in the 1st half of 2024 and 4.4% in Jul–Oct'24.

This acceleration is also present in the most recent data. The industry's aggregate output, which had grown 3.9% in Q3'24, registered 5.8% in Oct'24 against Oct'23. And all macro-sectors progressed in the same direction, especially intermediate goods (from +2.9% to +5.0%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from +2.7% to +4.2%). Capital goods and durable consumer goods, however, kept the leadership. 

Both capital goods (+12.8%) and durable consumer goods (+17.2%) grew at double-digit rates in Jul–Oct'24, driving the acceleration that the general industry registered in the period. In Oct'24, they gained more speed: 15.3% and 19.6% compared to Oct'23, respectively. 

In the first case, the highlights were the segments: capital goods for the industry, with an expansion of 11.0%, of mixed use, with +27%, and for transport, whose output increased 29.6% in Jul–Oct'24 compared to Jul–Oct'23.

In the second case, automobile production stands out, not for presenting the highest growth rate, but for having had the greatest recent turnaround, going from a decrease of 3.6% in the 1st half of 2024 to an increase of 15.6% in Jul–Oct'24. Other significant advances marked the production of household appliances (+21.4%) and furniture (+15.8%).

Intermediate goods, which represent the hard core of the industrial system, have also been showing improvements, registering 3.5% in Jul–Oct'24 versus 2.0% in the 1st half of 2024. Intermediates for the automobile industry, steel products and inputs for civil construction are among the items that have made the most progress so far in this second half of the year.

Semi and non-durable consumer goods, which have been growing for a longer time, did not gain strength, but also did not show much deceleration. The sector’s output registered 3.1% in Jul–Oct'24 compared to 3.6% in the first half of 2024. The segments of fuels, dairy products and cattle slaughter are among those that grew less in the second half of the year until Oct'24. 

For Nov'24, there are some short-term signs in the direction of some moderation. This can be seen in the recent evolution of inventories, which grew in Oct'24 and were considered higher than planned for a larger (albeit still a minority) part of branches. As for the evaluation of industrial entrepreneurs in Nov'24, the CNI indicator remained in the region of pessimism and FGV's declined, as did the PMI Manufacturing.

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